Saturday, November 18, 2006

 

Uranium, "perfect" commodity...

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Hi everyone,


Uranium "express" train left the station...It there a chance to get in before is too late..?. IMHO, everyone should have a portion of trading/investing portfolio "dedicated" to U..


Not long time ago, I had my "expose" on uranium. Now, I am "forced" to add some more "oil on the fire"... More news is coming, and CCJ Cigar Lake flooding is driving price over 62 $ / pound....Remember, the whole thing started 1998-2000 when uranium was 5-7 $...

OK. I could be "nuts", and "uranium bug", and plain biased...Let's have a look at the facts ( again ):



-there is no organized uranium commodity market, uranium price is directly controlled buy simple SUPPLY/DEMAND ratio, by so-called "spot price"....

-OK.OK. We all know they are so many old, and new nuclear power stations that will drive uranium price to whatever level to secure enough uranium for long term financially viable clean, alternative energy supply.....

-well, but why all this "hype" now? OK. The number one uranium mining company is Cameco ( CCJ-NYSE, CCO-TSX ), and CCJ had major problem with one big mine ( Cigar Lake, had flooding ), and they will be not able to deliver amount of uranium as per agreed contracts...CCJ said they will fix problem in one year, experts are saying "wishful thinking", it is going to be longer, may be 2, or 3 yrs...Expert are saying that "...reducing CCJ uranium production is equivalent to oil supply problems by cutting off Saudi oil production..."

-Ya, but there is still a lot of uranium in the ground...Correct, except one small fact: it takes minimum 10 yrs from uranium discovery ( testing, seismic work, securing finances), to building a mine, to production...Having "yellowcake" on the market, being uranium producer is NOT the same as being junior uranium mining company...

- what about CCJ? Well, buying small positions on dips ( 3-5 % down ) would build great position for long term gain.....




Should we "sell the farm, and load the truck with uranium..?". Do some more research, read articles, and make your own decision. No investment is safe, never invest mortgage, or food money....



What would be the worst possible case scenario with uranium? Well. Imagine one more Chernobyl. That would bring price to single digit, and stop building new nuclear power stations, and make instantly all previous gains to become losses....



If you want to do daily check up of U spot price, go to:

http://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspx




Here are some clips, and articles for more reading:

Uranium Price Forecast Boosted by RBC Capital to $100 From $55


2006-11-17 12:45 (New York)
By Christopher Donville


Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- RBC Dominion .Inc. boostedits uranium price forecast for 2007 to an average of $100 apound from $55, saying a flood at Cameco Corp.'s Cigar Lake minein Canada that will delay production for two years.

Prices will be ``significantly higher'' than previouslyforecast from 2007 to 2015 because the underground deluge halteda project that had been set to start production next year andeventually would have supplied 11 percent of global mine output,Toronto-based RBC analysts Adam Schatzker and H. Fraser Phillipssaid today in a report to clients.`

`There is a high likelihood the spot market will reach $75a pound to $80 a pound by the end of 2006 and continue to risein 2007 as a result of both the real tightness in the market andthe influence of investors,'' Schatzker and Phillips said in thereport.

The price of uranium, a metal used to make fuel for nuclearreactors, has averaged $45.34 a pound this year, the RBCanalysts said. The current spot price is $62.50, according toprice assessments by Ux Consulting Co. of Roswell, Georgia.The analysts boosted their forecast for 2008 to an averageof $85 a pound from $50, and for 2009 to $75 from $40,reflecting delays in new supplies to meet rising demand foruranium.


http://www.stockinterview.com/Uranium-Spot-Price.html


SUMMARY: TradeTech reported its uranium price indicator at US$60.25/pound on Friday, November 3rd. “One off-market transaction involving delivery before year-end was concluded this week at, or very near to, TradeTech’s Spot Price Indicator of $60.25 per pound U3O8,” Gene Clark, Chief Executive of TradeTech wrote to us in an email. “These offers are for small quantities involving almost immediate delivery and payment.” We interviewed Gene Clark about this development and what it means for spot uranium price climb heading into year end and what to expect for early 2007.




By Susan Taylor

OTTAWA, Nov 17, 06 (Reuters) - A glowing outlook for uranium has renewed the market's love affair with miners of the nuclear fuel, but investors must cast around carefully to find the sector's best bets.

A mine mishap at Cameco Corp.'s (CCO.TO) Cigar Lake uranium project last month underscored the tight world supply, and news of a construction delay lifted a string of stocks and firmed the metal's price

Uranium oxide, also known as yellowcake, has surged to $62.50 a pound, more than 300 percent higher than in early 2004, when prices began to climb appreciably.

"We have a great opportunity in the uranium area right now, because the demand is about 180 million pounds a year worldwide, and the supply is about 140 million pounds," said Salman Partners analyst Ray Goldie.
"Until you close that gap, which won't be till around 2013, it's not clear where all the uranium is going to come from."

Bets that prices will hit $100 a pound in the next decade are fueled by supply concerns and the so-called nuclear renaissance.

There are 440 nuclear power plants generating electricity around the world, with another 82 reactors being built or planned for completion within 10 years, estimates Cameco


http://www.uranium.info/index.html


Here is some old stuff:


SARASOTA, Fla.--(INFOLINK)--January 4, 2006--


Canadian Analyst Forecasts 'Unbelievable Highs' Ahead For Nuclear Fuel As Utilities Scramble For Reliable Uranium Supply


Research analyst Kevin Bambrough for North America's top-ranked money management firm, Sprott Asset Management, predicts a major crisis ahead for U.S. utilities hoping to obtain fuel for their nuclear reactors, especially for those proposing new reactors. "The supply is just not there," warned Bambrough in a recently published interview appearing in StockInterview.com. "For people who want to bring on new facilities and contract for it (uranium), it's very difficult to do that," Bambrough advised utilities, "You have to go to mines that are not even there yet in order to try and contract supply."Bambrough warns of a supply deficit peaking in 2015 that might hypothetically drive uranium prices to an "unsustainable" high "north of $500/pound." The U.S. EIA projects, during Bambrough's timeframe, 67% of the nuclear fuel required to power the 103 U.S. nuclear facilities has not yet been contracted. Under this scenario, Bambrough sees an investment opportunity with many of the junior uranium companies. He explained the Sprott team has invested in juniors that "acquired properties that were once owned and were actively being worked by majors at the end of the 1970's bull market."




July 28th 2006


Market Gainer Members,

In other news in the energy sector President Bush commends the House of Representatives for the passage of landmark legislation to enable U.S. civil nuclear cooperation with India. This historic action by the House of Representatives is another important step toward building a new strategic partnership between the United States and India, the world's oldest and largest democracies. The U.S.-India civil nuclear cooperation initiative will help India generate more nuclear power to meet its enormous energy needs in a manner that does not increase greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, or increase demand on global oil and gas supplies.....

http://www.altiusminerals.com/files/Adrian-Day_comments.pdf


Here are some uranium stocks: CCJ ( CCO.TO ), FRG ( FRG.TO ), URZ, UUU.V, ALS.V, BAY.V, TUEFF ( TUE.V ), MGAFF ( MGA.V ), PNPFF ( PNP.TO ), AUEFG.PK ( AXU.TO ).......



Have a great weekend


Dragan


Wednesday, September 27, 2006

 

MLTO, "informal investors conference".....

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Hi everyone,

I have permission, and great pleasure to post my e-mail correspondence with Raymond Talarico, CEO of Medirect.....

All conversation is consider to be "of the records". Raymond have answered my questions by interposing his answers after my questions, and using font with different colours....

Now, I have more reasons to believe in my strong conviction that MLTO is great junior growth company.... My intention is to "get loaded" with MLTO, after next 10Qs are out, and MLTO is listed on OTCBB.

I have significant position with MLTO, and I could be biased, and I could be wrong. Goes without saying, doing own research, own homework, and making own decision about investing with this company is a MUST.

No investment is safe, and nobody should ever invest any money that can not "afford" to lose all.....

Dragan





Here we are:




e-mail # 1


Dear Mr. Djordjevic,
My responses are in blue. Please call to schedule a visit, ask for Claudia at ext. 147, she is my assistant and will take care of it for you.
Regards,
Raymond



From: dragan [mailto:dragan7777777777@yahoo.ca] Sent: Wednesday, September 20, 2006 9:51 AMTo: rtalarico@medirectlatino.orgSubject: questions..


Dear Mr.Talarico,

I would like to ask a few questions about MedirectLatino. As an investor, and physician, I am very much interested for MLTO well-being, but also for events, and rumours around your company...


It is very disconcerting that Medirect is not having any news report on the progress of many issues. Lack of news, monthly financial statements, TV adds, break up with Wall Street Resources, and lack of any new marketing team, and promised celebrity, are in sharp contrast from MLTO activities a year ago....What happened? (The Company as previously reported will make revenue announcements quarterly, and is traditional method of reporting. We are not going to be drawn into the pink sheet-pump and dump philosophy, of meaningless public announcements. We have chosen to be very careful about any announcements until after the completion of the Form 10. I realize the market wants news and as one of the biggest shareholders in the Company trust me I feel your pain. But, we really need to be careful. The break up with Wall Street Resources??? (are you related?) What break-up? Their contract was simply not renewed, if you “heard” otherwise someone is being overly dramatic. As stated the Company at the proper time will look to hire a PR firm with investor relations experience. Also, the Company is negotiating ‘at the moment’ with a number of celebrity spokesperson(s) and will announce when the person has been chosen and the deal is complete. We continue to advertise, not sure what you’re referring to? Let me tell you something you probably already know -- a bit of Marketing 101: during the summer and into September PUT levels are off because of weather (people are outside), family vacations, school etc. So yes, as planned, we did turn down the advertising for all the reasons stated above and again, following our plan, we will crank it back up again when people are actually watching.)


Listing on OTCBB is taking really long time, and the rumour around retail investors is that company past unaudited financial statements are not complete, and that is the main reason for delay....Nothing around the financials just sloppy legal work from our side. We basically have done a poor (read lousy) job in our filing for the Form 10. We changed counsel and I believe the ‘quality’ of work will reflect that and the filing will move forward to completion.


I am aware that Mr. R. Williams was instrumental for MLTO start-up, as initial financier. I am wondering, if Mr.Williams is present MLTO market maker ( MM ), as many retail investors "well informed" sources claim, and is he going to be MM for MLTO when stock trading is moved to OTCBB? I am not aware that Mr. Williams is a market maker. Mr. Williams is a shareholder as are you, and yes he was helpful in the early stages in assisting us in getting the initial capital to prove our technology.


Also, I would like to ask you if it is possible to visit MLTO Pompano Beach office, and meet you (it would be my pleasure). My "surprise" visit last month was very clearly unwelcome (not unwelcome, but you cannot expect management to drop everything because you’re here, please call Claudia, my assistant ext.147 and she will schedule time to visit, heck I love showing off the place), and Ms. Gogin gave me impression that MLTO doors are closed to public (we are not a retail Company but a licensed Federal Medicare provider who deals with large amounts of patient files and as such we are “closed”) , and retail investors. (not really we just ask them to make an appointment). This was a bit surprise to me, and in contrast with some other investors great success with phone contacts, and visits to your company...


I am sure you are aware that investor community has great respect for MLTO management team, and the fact that bringing the company from "nothing" to present level was extraordinary success. But, I am not sure if you are aware that many retail investors are disappointed with present progress, and either sold their shares, or in of process selling. It would be very disappointing to see that one great business idea, and business model does not materialize in creation of one great national company....

I wish you personally, your management team, and MLTO everything the best, and great success in the future. I can understand that some of my questions can not be fully answered, but it would very appreciated very much, if you find some time to give me some answers..


Thank you in advance

Dragan Djordjevic




e-mail # 2



Dear Mr. Djordjevic,
Good afternoon, my comments are below.
Regards,
Raymond


From: dragan [mailto:dragan7777777777@yahoo.ca] Sent: Saturday, September 23, 2006 10:34 AMTo: rtalarico@medirectlatino.orgSubject: Re: FW: questions..

"Raymond J. Talarico" http://ca.f510.mail.yahoo.com/ym/Compose?To=rtalarico@medirectlatino.org


Dear Mr.Talarico,

I really thank you very much for your e-mail response....I completely agree with you that MLTO doesn't need empty press releases, and does not need to get "pumped up", or to get to Chinese type pink sheets mentality.....MLTO is not company which is endlessly looking for "diamond" in the pile of dirt, MLTO has the map with exact location of the that "diamond".... (Thank you, I agree (notwithstanding I helped develop the plan) that one of the many strengths of the model is the ‘road map’ we developed as a result in-depth research and testing, this solid body of R&D considerably reduced the typical “what ifs” that occur once your operational (not that we haven’t had numerous guided discoveries). Because of the amount of work that went into early ‘proving’ we are better able to concentrate on the operations. Now we need to focus on completing the Form 10 and the move to the OTC so we can source less expensive funds to continue to fuel the growth. We have many sources which are interested in making an equity investment, but not at what I would consider advantageous to our shareholders. We are looking at a combined debt/equity vehicle which minimizes dilution and gives the Company access to much less expensive money. There is no reason to do a cheap stock deal that substantially dilutes the Shareholders now when the ‘pricing’ after we move to the OTC will be much to the advantage of MEDirect and our base. That is why I am pushing my team so hard to have the filings perfect and why we are being careful (probably over-cautious, beat you to it) about announcements. We need to upgrade our listing because the institutional support we have lining up once we upgrade (solicited ~vs~ unsolicited.) will benefit everyone.


I am not "related" to WSR, and I was always puzzled why would such great start-up like MLTO be part of their marketing "portfolio". Anyone who would take a better look at WSR portfolio, would easily see that WSR companies are very questionable qualities, and stocks are money losing proposals.. (Young companies often have relationships which they ultimately outgrow, Wall Street Resources did a credible job for MEDirect, but we felt that it was not in our best interests to sign an agreement for another year as our plans have outgrown the relationship. I really am not a liberty to tell you who we have in the pipeline but I believe the market will welcome them enthusiastically.)


Also, I am very glad that RW is not MM, at this time..I am not interested for slander, or character assassination, but the fact that he was a subject to some law-suites in the past was not "my cup of tea"..(we are on the same page reference your sentence. As to Ron, he was there for us in the beginning, he personally wrote checks (a lot), and brought well respected relationships, his financial support of MEDirect allowed management to focus on operations, he did all of this when, for the most part, all we were was a ‘good’ story, for that I give him a lot of credit. All the shares he received as part of his compensation are restricted, still are.) I am not sure if all of those rumours about RW are correct or not, but those were "dug out" by some MLTO curious investors, and posted on the web....(I haven’t seen the posting but I have had things forwarded to me, I mean what do you say, “OK, he was a bad guy…right? OK, I think that was like 20+ years ago, not that that changes anything. But, Dragan, here is what I can be quoted on…”Ron always did exactly what he said he was going to do and exactly when he said he would do it. He never tried to screw us and never lied to us. I guess to me that is a measure of someone’s word and integrity”. He is simply a shareholder, supportive at that (I see the NOBO reports), if people are attacking him and grinding MEDirect because we had a relationship, not much I can do. I guess the only question I would ask them is; would you have taken the same large cash risk when he did? I mean, he invested when there was no public market, and for that he is sitting on restricted stock! Such a deal…right? Maybe, those people attacking him have an ax to grind over something else or maybe they are just mad in general.)


You might be wondering why I am so much vocal about MLTO? As investor, and physician I was very much convinced from day one that MLTO business idea, and business model are simple outstanding, genius....On that conviction, I became informal web spokesperson for MLTO, and major part of MLTO investment groups.. (Thank you, I had no idea. We do appreciate everyone’s support, and I recognize that the market is treating us like ‘red-headed step children’. Based on the number of emails I get, your not having any fun, I owe you a cold one. The 10K (year ends) will be out shortly and will help everyone feel more comfortable.)


It is obvious that MLTO stock is going steady down for months, and yesterday with a "huge" volume...I am not sure if you are aware, or even if you want to know, but there is a "rumour mill" about some pending lawsuit from certain shareholders....(based on the chart everyone is upset (pissed), I know that, I mean, me too!, A lawsuit doesn’t do anyone any good, but they are unfortunately part of business, if a shareholder wants to hurt everyone I guess that’s their privilege, I don’t get it, but, it is what it is) I hope that is not true, but in the case that it is true, I wish that you, and MLTO management are strong, and fully united, and able to lead this wonderful "business story" called MidirectLatino to front pages of Wall Street Journal and Baron's...

Best regards from MLTO "die hard fan"..

Dragan Djordjevic


PS: I live in Toronto , Canada , and next week I have a few days off....So, I am wondering if it would be possible to visit MLTO, and meet you in person at such short notice. I can understand that your hectic schedule may prove impossible to find time for investor "nuts", but I thought it would not hurt to ask....If you think that would be possible, I will call your personal secretary, and find out some mutual agreeable time.. ( I am appearing daily, Monday’s are the only day that I prefer not to take calls or schedule appointments as I have operations meeting throughout the entire day with each department then I brief the President, but pick any other day between 9 and 3 (3:30 customer service meeting each day) and it would be my pleasure to change
my schedule as necessary to accommodate you. Looking forward to your visit.)







e-mail # 3





Dear Mr. Djordjevic,
Where available, and if I can comment, I have included same below. I look forward to meeting when you come to town.
Regards,
Raymond



From: dragan [mailto:dragan7777777777@yahoo.ca] Sent: Tuesday, September 26, 2006 1:22 PMTo: rtalarico@medirectlatino.orgSubject: RE: FW: questions..

"Raymond J. Talarico" http://ca.f510.mail.yahoo.com/ym/Compose?To=rtalarico@medirectlatino.org


Dear Mr. Talarico,

I am not sure if you can imagine how muchI have appreciated your honest, open, and direct answers on all of my "tough love" (reminds me of home) questions about Medirect. Thank you again, you restored my confidence in the management team, and in my intention to "load the truck" with MLTO shares...I am sure you will keep your word ( given during last conference ), and not consider buyout offers till MLTO reach at least 20 dollars...Actually, I hope MLTO will make some acquisitions in the future, instead being "buyout target".....I know, this could be a bit of a stretch. (“We need to continue to build both value and brand. The Company must ‘brand’ MEDirect Latino in the ‘Medicare eligible community’ and brand MLTO in the ‘markets’, doing so creates value for both our shareholders and our customers. Elementally, brand development will build foundational strength in both the Company and the stock. Following this strategy is very important to supporting the products the Company has available; Medicare reimbursed products and as important, MLTO.” In the one area we are doing a fantastic job, in the other we’re doing an awful job, but I submit to you this is because of circumstance (registration), but circumstances change (registration complete). The key is that we recognize the difference and are staying focused. We are poised to begin making meaningful announcements which will ‘remind’ everyone why MEDirect Latino is a great Company. (preaching)…I believe the market makes up its own mind as to a companies price, and if it, the market, will provide support. I do not believe that a company can ‘teach’ the market anything, to believe otherwise would be arrogant, but I do believe that once we get back (soon) to regular announcements which are meaningful, and regular conference calls, the market will reconsider our price and support our direction.)



I am so disappointed that I would not be able to meet you this week, in spite of your generous, accommodating offer. My family ( read my wife ) (wives will do that, lol) is up in arms, and against me going to Florida again, after visiting Fort Lauderdale one month ago. They want to me to take care of some family affairs. Well, she is the "boss". I will take "rain check", and visit MLTO, and meet you at the first next opportunity. I am looking forward to that...(“the door is always open, let me know when your schedule will accommodate a visit, also, if your in touch with other shareholders who would like to visit, please let them know that they are welcome, I only ask that they call ahead of time, I can always carve out time to give Shareholders a quick tour and answer a few questions.”)



I have two more questions, and I promise not to "bug" you any more. The first one you might chose not to answer, and that would be your absolute prerogative. Is the current MM ( market maker ) connected with MLTO, is he a shareholder, or independent trader, "outsider"...? (I can go on the record with you on this and it may not be the answer you’re looking for, “The Company does not have a market maker that we have an agreement with nor has a market maker ever contacted the Company. I do not know, nor does the Company know the maker(s) in our stock, because of that; I cannot specifically answer if they are a friendly, a shareholder, an independent or an outsider”. I know everyone is Ron Williams sensitive, as are we, as is he (bet no one would believe that), but I can’t say for sure if he is the behind the market maker, knows the market maker, or is the market maker. I wish I could say otherwise but I honestly don’t know.)



And last one. Do I have your permission to post our electronic correspondence on MLTO web message boards, or you would prefer to keep this as a "private"? Again, I will certainly respect your decision. (No problem, one caveat, I only ask that you use the responses which I have noted by “quotation”, that way if I would like to add color for you, my creative side is not stifled. I leave it to you to express my…ahh…color commentary, if you agree to that, then we are good to go? Oh! One other thing, if legal puts the kibosh on the Q&A then…it is what it is, and I am always off the record.)

Thank you again. God bless, and "may market be with you, all the time"...



MLTO "die hard fan"


Dragan Djordjevic




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Saturday, August 12, 2006

 

ILMN - initial report.....

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Hi everyone,

In spite of my "investment wisdom" to equally use fundamentals, and technicals, deep down I am probably more fundamentalist than technician...Each of "my"stocks must have: a "story behind the story...", a compelling story, something REAL, and SPECIAL to make me to put my money "on line"...


Thanks to my friend Rich, I have "discovered" Illumina. ILMN is next big thing, new market leader, one of those stocks that we will look back in ten years, or more, and say "...gee, I wish, I bought this jumbo-mambo long time ago..."


I have to admit, I am a "medicine man", and at the first time somebody mentioned to me ILMN months ago, I had a "quick look" at Illumina, and after seeing worlds like: SNP, beads, "geno-typing", and so on...., I lost interest.....So, what is Illumina doing? Illumina is a market leader providing service, research, tools for genetyping. Genetyping? What the heck is that, one of those scientific gimmicks to lure people losing more money....?




OK. Let me tell you very simplified, short story about genetics for last 20 years.

Since some 50 yrs ago, when some mortal humans discovered that our genes are made of predetermined combinations of small genetic material called nucleotides, DNA, RNA, and nucleic acids are high school curriculum..


Then we heard next big thing: gene-mapping! Gene mapping will allow scientists to discover, identified, possible modified ( and I am not talking about cloning, OK? ) normal, and abnormal genes of possible ALL diseases, and give us prophylaxis, diagnosis, and treatment for EVERYTHING!.....Ya, but only one little problem. Gene-mapping is an awfully slow process! It took "only" 13 years, over 200 hundred scientists, all over the world to do "human genome mapping"...


Now, thanks to some other mortal humans, geno-typing was discovered! Geno-typing is a method to bring gene-mapping to the "lighting speed"...OK, may be not that fast, but much faster than ever could be imagined before....This was the reason, why we start reading about genetics again, and why a "zillion" of new junior biotech companies were created, trying to identified reasons, and possible find a cure for diseases like: cystic fibrosis, ALS, diabetes, cancer, heart attack, schizophrenia, and so on...


This is almost like looking for the gold-pot on the end of rainbow. From those zillion biotech startups only very few will succeed, only one, or two in zillion will be next MSFT, or IBM...But they ALL need one thing right now: they need service, and tools to do genotyping....! And here we are, "on the end of story", here is the "beauty" of ILMN! Illumina is a market leader providing service, tools for genotyping. ILMN "goldpot" is already here, they are already making money, just turned profitable....ILMN is "next big thing" happening now...


So, when you put the facts together: health care is "hot", health care service, tools, devices is next "boom", and ILMN is market leader in genotyping service business, you will understand why I am going to "put my money on line" with Illumina...You might want to do some own research, homework, and make own judgement, I could be wrong, and biased...


more reading:

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2005/05/02/8258483/index.htm ( the most informative article....)

http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=13211&ch=biotech&sc=&pg=1

http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=15846&ch=biotech

http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=15860&ch=biotech





Let's have closer look at ILMN.....

First of all, ILMN is "far" for being a "perfect" stock, by FA,TA, or any other criteria....But, IMHO, Illumina is an excellent investment opportunity, next "big" thing....



Fundamental analysis:


Total cap 1.57 B, total shares 46 M, float 43M....
PE 270 ( !? ), forward PE 42, ROE - + 6%, ROA - 4%, profit margin 5%
Debt / Equity ratio, positive, + 5%

EPS, revenue, very good!, over 15 consecutive Qs sequential up trend, last quarter FIRST time profitability ( remember: first profitability is very bullish signal )

There is insider activity ( selling ), but this appears like programmed, monthly planed sale, and insignificant in relation to absolute number of shares owned by insiders "sellers"...

Institutional ownership is high, at 75% ( 352 institutions ), with some recent additional buying from Fidelity...

Short interest is at 3.5 M, and ILMN Yahoo MB is very "active" with short posters....



Over all, ILMN fundamentals "on paper" are close to terrible! But, after looking at: business idea, business model ( incl. competition ), management, marketing team, and "pipelines", learning about geno-typing, and listening to last four ILMN investors conference ( it took me half day to do this, but it was very worthwhile..), I can see dramatic, explosive growth in front of this company, which will make "paper fundamentals" terrific in a year, or two....




If you have time to spare, I would suggest to listen to those conferences:

http://investor.illumina.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=121127&p=irol-presentations&EventId=1349254



Competition: AFFX, LNMX, SQNM, ABI, BEC, NGEN.....Looking at the products, sales, and talking to the scientific community ILMN is clear market leader!


One small cloud on ILMN "blue sky". AFFX is in a process of possible suing ILMN for IP on 6 patents. Both companies are having tens, and hundreds of biotech patents, and much more pending....Assuming that Court will not "dismiss" this litigation as "without merits...", looking at IP patents litigation in US, and AFFX history, it is almost for sure, two companies will settle for "undisclosed financial details", and possible make some sort of cooperation...

Like AFFX did before, AFFX v. HYSEG ( settlement, 2001 ), AFFX v. INCY ( settlement, 2001 ), AFXX v. OGT ( settlement, 2001 )...






Technical analysis:


Far from "perfect" stock, there is not recent "true" breakout, and there was recent "gap up", after last ER ( July 18, 06 ).....


Stock
 Graph


Stock Graph









News analysis:


ILMN has very active Yahoo MB, with sharp division between extremely knowledgeable people ( many of them working "in the field" ), and uninformed occasional visitors, and "intellectually challenged" shorts..

Last ER, and conference are "must" listen.......

Recently, ILMN announced two new contracts, with "big" pharma, J&J, and Glaxo-Smith...

more reading:

http://investdb.theglobeandmail.com/invest/investSQL/gx.company_news?pi_company_id=199668

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=ILMN




My plan is to accumulate a significant position with ILMN, buying on "dips". But, I could be wrong, and biased..You might want to do some more research, DD, "homework", and make your own judgement...Understanding Illumina's business, and pipelines is absolutely essential...Remember: "...if you do not where you are going, any road will bring you there..". Buying on tips, and following the crowd, without own "homework", is a sure road to financial disaster...


Good luck

Dragan


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General comments:..next, new "big" things...

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Hi everyone,

This my "analysis", and you might want to take these comments with the grain of salt...Everyone should do own market research, analysis, and this could be a starting point. All comments, positive and negative, are welcome....

After doing some research, and "homework", I can see emerging three "new" market leading sectors.This is my assessment, and I could be wrong...So, my intention is to give you some material to think about, and possible do some more research, and make some investment decisions. Here we are: next three "big" things are:



1. refineries

2. uranium

3. health care: new service, new technology, new tools, and new devices...




What about refineries? Why they are "hot"? They are in the "sweet" spot!




Aside of escalating high oil price, and high likelihood of oil price staying in 50-70 range, or more, these are the main factors in driving refineries "to the moon":

- by Congressional moratorium, there will be NO any new refinery build on US soil in the near future...Or, no community would endorsed building new refinery in their neighbourhood. Period. Why? You name it:pollution, fires, explosion, potential terrorist target, and so on...

- one of the major factors for high oil price are refineries, they are "bottleneck", due to limited capacities ( in last 20 yrs more refineries were closed than open in US! ), and frequent work disruption: like, hurricanes, plant fires, plant maintenance work, plant upgrades...

- large number of new refineries are build outside of US, like in the Middle East ( Saudi number one), and world politics, and conflicts, and wars will have major impact on those refineries..So, the price of oil will go more up not only because of supply, and fear factor, but, also, because of refineries "bottleneck"...

- estimates for oil reserves from Canadian oil-sands oil are at least equal, or larger than oil reserves from Saudi, so US refineries will "never" dry out...


more reading:



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athabasca_Oil_Sands




What is up with uranium? Very "sweet" spot, indeed...:





Uranium is the only special "metal" which will have continuous bull market for next 10-20 yrs! So, not copper, not gold, not silver, not titanium, but uranium.Why uranium/

- supply and demand ratio, there is enormous shortage of uranium

- nuclear power plants are the only real "clean" alternative energy for oil, and coal,..... uranium rich countries are politically, and economically stable, with close ties to the West ( US, Canada, Australia )

- takes many ysr to build one nuclear power station, building nuclear station is very expensive, and each new station has to negotiate, and secure contracts for continuous uranium supply for extended period of time, to be financially viable project

- aside of the fact that majority ( around 60% ) of current nuclear power station are not having long term contracts for uranium supply, there is a large number of new constructions, or plans for new for constructions, in US, Europe, China, and India ......

-there are only a few major uranium producers, mainly from Canada, and Australia, although there is a large number of junior mining companies around the world in different stages of exploration..




What is going on with health care?


Here is Street "dirty" secret: Health care is next "boom"! Health care service, medical tools, medical devices is a HOT sector...Why now? I am not sure, it could be simple sector/industry rotation, or finally the start of predicted health care "explosion" from long time announced "baby boomers" health care invasion....


Now, health care is "hot". But, that is only the beginning of the story.....Biotechnology, bioengineering, genetics, robotics, steam cell, and so on..., are next "big thing". They will change medical research, early diagnostics, prophylaxis, and treatment of many disease ( incl. cancer, HIV, flu, hep C, etc....). There are , and there will be zillion biomedical companies trying to hit "jackpot". But ONLY companies providing service, tools, and devices for those who are looking for "jackpot", will make money for sure....

Remember "gold rush"? From thousands of "old timers" only a few found gold, and most money was made by guys who where selling shovels, boots, food, booze, and sex...Or, oil/gas boom, a zillion of junior, and senior companies, but who did constantly very well? Oil/gas service companies, providing seismic work, drilling rigs, or making pipelines...



What is the best way to "play" HOT sector, or industry rotation? Well, find the sector/industry market leaders, get in early, and ride "the wave" as long as possible...



Good luck

Dragan

.


Saturday, August 05, 2006

 

Theory,...part 4: how, and where to look for "perfect" one....

.

OK now we are at the most difficult part. How to find a perfect stock?

Before we go any farther, let’s say one more time: what it is the perfect stock, and what we are looking for? And do I have to say again? OK. Here we are: "Perfect" stock is dynamic, NOT static condition!


Perfect stock has very solid, if not “excellent” fundamentals, summarized with one sentence: small, or zero debt, and ALREADY making profit, ( A )

and, having specific type of charting pattern, described in one sentence: being at the true breakout point, with large price, and volume advance, after long flat basing chart pattern, ( B )

without any “significant” news........( C ).


I hope we all know now exactly what all this mean. Do we?

A + B +C.

Yes!? Great!...... Then one third of the job is done. We know exactly what we are looking for.


OK.OK. But, then what we do, how we start?

There are three steps.....:



1. FIRST, WE DO SOME FORM OF INITIAL “FA” SCREEN, that will
give us certain number of stocks, possible perfect stocks candidates......


2. then we have a “quick look” at the chart of each individual stock, using any
chart where we can easily see price, and volume action, and if we find
anything looks like “breakout with volume, and price, after long flat basing
pattern”...we take this stocks...and


3. go back and do “full” FA, real homework, and make sure there is nothing major to
disqualify stock immediately from being “perfect”, and then again "real" homework, another
detailed tech analysis, and make verdict: perfect, or not prefect stock




THIS IS NOT EASY, REQUIRES TIME, IMAGINATION, INTUITION, LUCK, “HARD WORK”, AND WHAT I CALL REAL RESEARCH...........





HOW INITIAL SCREENING CAN BE DONE?


Why we need initial screening?

There are over 14 000 stocks out there, we want to pick out some of them by using some kind of screening strategy, method, or tool...There are many ways of doing initial screening...



Here are some initial screening options:


1. pick some stocks randomly, and with great luck, “hit” the perfect one.....this is not very effective, in spite of the fact that “ Gods, or Lady Luck help the brave ones.....”, I would not recommend anybody doing this....


2. pick a group of stocks from some free, or paid investment service, using some criteria ( like all stocks with “strong buy” recommendation, or all stocks under 10 dollars with IBD rating between 50 and 75, or all stocks rating Zacks # 1, and 2# picks, and so on, and so on.....), and put them through initial TA hoping to hit a stock at initial true breakout point..., this option very rarely produce any result, because most of those stocks are already well known, well advanced stocks, long time passed initial breakout point...


3. go to www.amex.com, or www.nasdaq.com, or www.nyse.com, or www.equitytrader.com, and pull out all stocks in a “hot” industry, or sector, for example all medical, or all generic drugs stocks, or all internet stocks, and do quick initial TA screening to see if there is any true breakout point.., this can be very time consuming, but occasionally can give a true “gem”...., I had a success with this option....


4. go to web site where there is daily list of stocks in focus, like: 10 stocks with the biggest daily volume advance on NASDAQ, or 10 stocks with the largest volume % advance in last 5 days, or 10 stocks with biggest price advance in last three days...., this is usually not very productive, and there is a DANGER: to be exposed to stocks well advanced, stocked being “pimped”, or “hyped”, stocks gone to “da moon”, after some extremely positive news...


5. find some pre-build, pre-tested searches with search criteria already determined....., this could be a good initial search tool, but the really good ones are usually coming from paid services ( nothing really good is given for free....), ...I use some of over 60 pre-build searches at investortoolbox.com, but this is very expensive service....


6. build own search engine, with own choice of search criteria, by using free, or paid service, lik using Zacks “build own criteria” search engine, or using own meta-search, and I am using Power Pro Search from my paid service investortoolbox.com....., this can give the best initial search results, but need certain degree of knowledge how to do it, and can be expensive, if a paid service is used.......


7. one possible strategy, option, that I have never used is: to find a bunch small cap companies, with really great, or outstanding fundamentals, in some sort of long flat base charting pattern, get them on separate monitoring portfolio screen, and check daily, to see if there is any true breakout happening......, this could be some sort of sleeper, or “guerrilla war” strategy, but I can see as valid option....I never tried this before...




OK what is my usual method of searching for “perfect” stock, how is done, what are the criteria, what is my “tool”?


I use most of the time Power Pro Search, where my initial criteria will have some of the important FA and/or TA criteria for “perfect” stock....For example: I will run my “search engines” looking for all American listed stocks, between 1 and 10 dollars, with ROE between 50% and 5000%, market cap from 10 to 1000 M, having basing pattern for last 26 weeks, where the price did not oscillate more then 20% from the baseline, breaking out in last 10 days..



Then, next time I will look at any company, on NASDAQ stock market, with EPS going over 100% in at least last 4 Qs, ROE over 40%, and ROA over 20%, with no insiders trading...


And so on , and so on...., with changing my criteria, reducing the number of them, and mixing them up and down, I am able almost always to come out with some result, to find some stocks for initial screen..


Now, I am sure, it is quite clear, that building own search engine criteria, and using ALL fundamental features for a “prefect” stock, at the same time, will ALWAYS give zero result....One has to be creative, logical, flexible, and not “ 100% sticking to the rules..”, to be able to make efficient search engines, tools...


I am sure, there must be a great numbers of other methods, strategies, options how to do good quality “initial” search...Regardless, what is the option, the main target is: to select a small group of stocks with some fundamental features ( in one word: companies making money, being already profitable ..), that will warrant to have “initial” technical analysis.....





NEXT STEP IS TO DO INITIAL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS!


What is “initial” tech analysis, and how is it done?


After initial stock screening produce a number of stocks ( from 10, 20, 50, to 150....), the next step is to do “quick” tech analysis, to do quick tech screen, to see if any of those stock appears to be at the true breakout point.....

How I do my initial “quick” tech screening?

I go to Yahoo Finance, and “pull out” one year chart, with price and volume, and 50 days and 200 days MA on the chart, and then I “have a quick look” at the chart for every single stock produced with my very first initial, fundamental screen......

Experienced, trained eye can see in 5 seconds, if a stock chart is having, or not having, true breakout point, with significant price and volume advance, after some form of long, flat base basing pattern......

I do not look at the chat any more, if I see clear down trending, or clear established long time up trending, or there is no any basing pattern, or maybe huge volatility, or average daily volumes are under 30 K.......



So, after all of this is done what is next?



Next step is: taking a stock (s), which passed first step ( initial fundamental screen ), and second step ( initial technical screen ), and do complete, detailed HOMEWORK, and to be able to give final verdict: “perfect”, or "not perfect" stock......




Final detailed fundamental and technical analysis ( real homework ) will not only make a verdict: perfect, or not perfect stock......, but will check if there are not any hidden facts, like: “ story behind the story”, any “mortal sins”, particular industry, or sector information.......

THE BOTTOM LINE: LOOKING FOR “PERFECT STOCK” IS TEDIOUS, HARD WORK, IT IS NOT EASY TO SEPARATE DIAMONDS, AND GEMS FROM GARBAGE, AND MUD, BUT REWARDS OF FINDING ONE ARE EXTREMELY PROFITABLE, WITH MINIMUM RISKS......


THIS IS THE END OF THE STORY HOW TO LOOK FOR PERFECT STOCK. GOOD LUCK, AND GOOD HUNTING TO ALL OF YOU, FROM NOW ON, I WILL CONCENTRATE ON HUNT ONLY, AND I WILL NOT “BUG” YOU WITH THIS KIND OF THEORETICAL STUFF ANYMORE...



Good luck

DRAGAN


.

 

"Perfect stock", some comments...

.

This came from Vectorinvestor on BVX Yahoo message board:


Dragan,

Nice job,So besides BVX which is a "perfect stock", BTW I also own ALJ, completely ironic. I saw your blog after owning both these stocks.

Like your blog.




This was my "answer":




Hi Vector,

Thanks for your comment on my blog....No, there is no any other "perfect stock" right now...Even BVX is not any more "perfect"....

I am looking all the time, and in the meantime, I am posting the basic of my perfect stock strategy...This could be a "tool" for some interested individuals, and I do not mind to share those principles...Still each person would have to do own research, homework. If you do not mind my spelling, and grammar, and if you wish, you are welcome to '"join" me....My intention is to form one day ( that would be when there is a clear new bull market ) an exclusive informal investment group looking for a "perfect stocks", and my blog would be a starting point...

I have already try that, but not working, because it is not easy, due to market conditions...Will try again, when conditions are right. I keep saying: "...give me one more bull market like in 1990s and I will put street on "fire"...."

BVX was perfect around mid-June, at the point of "true" breakout, with a lot of "silent" buying...Remember, being "perfect" is dynamic state, not static...

Perfect stock is made of "right' combination of fundamentals, and technicals, which are more common on the beginning of new economic cycle ( new bull market ), or in well established bull market....Present market conditions are gone in opposite direction ( correction, or possible recession...), and it is very difficult to find a "perfect stocks"...It is not impossible, but just very rare, and difficult....I am "looking" all the time, and if you keep checking my blog, from time to time, you will be able to see if anything is new....

I am playing market for about 10 yrs, and idea about "perfect stock" was born from pure frustration with different investment services, newsletters, stock-picking web sites, and so on.....

As a everyday working person, I was trying to find a place where I can have great "picks", some sort of somebody else doing my homework...... And I have tried a lot, like Changewave, Pristine, Zacks, VectorVest, StockPickers, Gorilla Trades, and so on....

I have found two types of service, one was pure fundamentals look at the stock, finding "undervalued" stocks, and picking them from the "bottom", good for value players, and the other was pure technical approach, finding stocks with "good looking" charts, regardless of fundamentals, good for day traders, and mo-mo players.....

So, nobody will give me a stock with great fundamentals at the moment of true breakout....I have realized, I have to do my own "homework", and that is how I developed my own "perfect stocks" strategy...

Sure, I trade, and invest with some other market opportunities, strategies, chart pattens, but for me the most profitable, with the least risks, call it the best odds, is a "perfect stock".....

Good luck

Dragan


.

Thursday, August 03, 2006

 

Theory,...part 3: Insiders trading.....

.


Insiders trading...., what is what?



There is a lot of disinformation, or misconception about "insiders trading".....This is exploited by both sides, "buy", and "sell" side...To "pump" the stock, or to short the stock....It pays to learn, to investigate....



First, and the most, NOT all insiders trading ( buying, or selling ) is consider significant...Everyone should check insiders trading for any stock as a part of routine "homework", research. Period. But, everyone should have straight facts about insiders trading.....




I will give you some facts, and others might want to make some additions:



1. absolute amount of money involved with trading is very important...."Street" has unwritten rule: anything under 120 K, as a single buy, or sell, is NOT consider as important trade...so, buying 1M shares of penny stock at 10 cents is not significant...


2. any trade, specially sell, has to be connected with the fact: how many shares seller owns....



3. who is trading, selling...., is it beneficial owner, or CEO, or former employee, etc....



4. is trading, specially selling, done "on open market", or transfer between institutions, or part of exercised options....



5. any company significant shares owner might have two trading issues, restrictions: "windows" when he/she is "allowed" to buy, or sell, and restriction with selling due to "blackout period", usually 6-12 months from original purchase, but not infrequent for longer period of time...



6. is the trading, selling part of planned, monthly, or quarterly sale, previously registered with SEC, or not..., selling to pay mortgage, buy yacht, or pay alimony, or split shares with ex, or ex-business partner is NOT consider insider selling...



7. every prudent "insider" should either buy, or sell shares, as a part of individual money management, "taking money off the table", of buying more shares to make more money is a sign of very smart individual, and I "love" to invest with companies who have smart management.......




.

 

Theory about "perfect stock"...part 2

.


Technical analysis-TA




Background: There are around 120 known technical indicators used by professional and/or amateur traders/investors......There is unknown number of tech indicators invented, and used by only very small number of traders/investors. One of them would be T analysis, from my “dear” friend, who is using T. Laundry general market assessment T theory, applied to individual stocks.....For those of you who are very curious, here is the web site to read about T theory: http://www.ttheory.com/....


ALL different tech indicators ( like: MA- simple, or exponential, MACD, STO- slow, or fast, RSI, CMF, candlesticks, charts, graphs, certain chart patterns, etc...) are used with the same purpose: by analyzing those indicators we try to identified certain stock price “behaviour” in the past, and at the present, with assessment of probability of future price “behaviour”, we try to predict the future..........




From all of known, and unknown indicators only two are universal, and in essence “built in” in every single other indicator.... These two are: PRICE movement, and VOLUME movement. The best “tool” to assess price, and volume movements is: to look at the stock chart, graph...


So, what are the elements of TA analysis for “perfect” stock?



1. “PERFECT” STOCK, IS A STOCK BREAKING OUT WITH PRICE,
ON AT LEAST 1.5 AVERAGE DAILY VOLUME ( the bigger, the
better ), AFTER LONG FLAT BASE PATTERN ( the longer, the
better, but not lass than three months ), WITHOUT ANY
“SIGNIFICANT” NEWS...........

2. “perfect” stock should have as many as possible other tech indicators
“on”, giving so called “buy signals”.......RCI, CMF, MACD, STO,
candlesticks, “price bar rules”, and so on......


I know, I know...., there are quite a few other chart patterns, and combinations of different tech indicators that can be used with great success to make money......, like "head and shoulders”, “double W”, “ two, or three bottoms reversal”, “cup with handle”, different candlesticks patterns, and so on, and so on.....




But, irrefutable truths, in my humble experience, are:

1. no any other chart pattern, single, or group of tech indicators is more
superior than: “........price and, volume true breakout after long basing
pattern....”. This is ALWAYS a sign of “smart money” moving in....


2. single ONE tech indicator, should NEVER be used alone, for ANY
trading decision.......Period. That is why price, and volume must go
together

3. if trading volume is very small, under daily average volume, or zero,
ANY price movement, any tech indicator validity is
MEANINGLESS....Period.


4. SINGLE ( one time, one day ) price and/or volume movement ( even if “huge” ) is NOT a
sign of true breakout.....Period.


Now, let us examine, in more details : “......breaking out, after long flat base chart pattern, without any significant news....”




What kind of “flat base” we are talking about?



Flat base means stock price is going sideways for significant period of time ( minimum 3 months, excellent if over one year ), possible very slightly up trending, or having long “cup with the handle” pattern, where cup has very flat, or protracted flat base.......Clear down trending basing pattern should be avoid!



What is “true” breakout?



Single, one day advance of price and/or volume ( regardless how big ) is NOT true breakout...True breakout is at least three consecutive days ( average 3-5 days ) significant price and volume increase ( if possible, breaking 52 wks high ), without any significant news....



What is a significant,....... and what is not significant, news?



Price and volume usually have a few days “rally” after: very good earnings report, increase guidance, just issued multiple “strong buy” ratings from analysts from well known investments firms, major PR, marketing, “pump, and possible dump” hype, etc,......, but ALL of these can prove to be short lived, or “false breakout”....



True breakout is “SILENT buying”, no news, no hype, no Cramer, no Yahoo, or any other boards, possible some announcement of some contracts ( coming from the company, not from paid marketing, PR firms ), single local analyst stock rating to “buy”, and so on.....


These are elements of true breakout, these are the signs of “smart money” moving in, silent continuous orderly buying......THIS IS WHAT WE ARE LOOKING FOR!...This is the point where we want to get in, we want to join this silent, orderly buying .........


I will post a chart pattern as an example of TA “perfect stock”. Most recent would be BVX on June 14, 2006:

Stock Graph




Now, I have to do it one more time.......THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A “PERFECT” STOCK. Period!


Wednesday, August 02, 2006

 

Theory about "perfect stock"...part 1

.

Fundamental analysis-FA


Great! But what is a “perfect” stock,...... and how to find it?


“Perfect” stock is: a stock with excellent fundamentals, breaking out with the price, going over 52 wks high, on big volumes, after long sideways flat basing pattern, without any significant news....


First of all let's make one thing clear: THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A “PERFECT” STOCK! Period!

Being perfect is dynamic moment, maybe one time, "coincidental" combination of fundamentally very solid company, and certain technical signals, indicators, at the moment of true breakout, without any significant news...Today "prefect" stock can become more than less perfect in a day, in a week, or in a month......



For a stock to qualify as a “perfect”, it MUST have two elements: FA plus TA......Note: only one element, only FA, or only TA does not qualify ANY stock, by any means to be a “perfect” one...



1. stock must have very solid fundamentals - FA


Fundamentals could be assessed by large number of different fundamental
indicators, but I consider two as a MUST, when I am doing my “homework”: ROE, and EPS

ROE ( return on equity ) should be as high as possible, but not less then 20%.......Caveat, look for debt/equity ratio ( 1 ), and one time non-recurring earnings ( 2), these two can artificially inflate ROE....

EPS must show continuous, progressive, as high as possible, growth ( over 100% is excellent ), for as many as possible ( but not less than four ) consecutive quarters, 8 to 12 consecutive Qs of high EPS growth is consider excellent... , remember: going from negative to positive EPS is not “negative” fundamental indicator, as long as there is a continuous clear substantial growth....Moment of turning profitable is very bullish signal....


- to describe a “perfect stock” in one sentence, from fundamental
point of view would be: perfect stock is a stock having small,
or zero debt, already making money, and being profitable....




What are the fundamental "indicators" that will automatically disqualify any stock, any time, from being a “perfect stock?:




1. stock with float under 1 million, and/or cap under 10 million

2. recent IPO, or IPO under 6 months.......

recent IPO will not allow any fundamental, financial data, to be assessed, or valid..........note: moving
company from one to another board ( example: from OTCBB to AMEX ) is not recent IPO...

3. stock with declining EPS, and/or revenue

4. single product company, and PE under 5, or over 100

5. companies with huge debts, and very small cash reserve

6. cyclical stock, during sector/industry slow down

7. stock with SIGNIFICANT insiders selling, note: small frequent multiple monthly insiders selling are
NOT significant!

8. stock with average daily volume under 20 000

9. stock with institutional ownership 0% , or over 85%......

10. stock followed by large number of analysts, specially analysts from well known investment firms, and
with large number of “strong buy” recommendations

11. stocks under, or rumoured to be under any SEC investigation, specially for “cooking the books”

12. stocks involved in any kind of litigation

13. history of bankruptcy less then two years ago, or CEO leaving for “health reasons”...

14. companies that are “known to everybody”, media “hype”, everybody is giving “buy” recommendations
( including my wife....), and have over active Yahoo, or any other MB.....






A question! Is it possible to break any, and/or all of fundamental ( must have, and must never have ) rules, and still have a “perfect stock”, from FA point of view?

The answer is: Yes!


Occasionally, it is possible to have a company ( usually small, recent start up, pink sheets or OTCBB....) which does not have any meaningful financial data available, and / or has a single, or many “automatic disqualifying negative features”, and......

.....if extensive, and comprehensive research ( “full detailed homework” ) shows that company is already profitable, already making money, and all 5 answers are: excellent, on the following 5 questions, that company may qualify as a “perfect stock”, from FA point of view...



What are the five questions? These are the following:


1. what is the business idea?-excellent

this means having unique, practical, great products , or service, that very
soon all of us will “breath, drink, and eat” every day.....

2. what is the business model?-excellent

meaning: is there somewhere out a real company with similar
product, or service ALREADY making money, proven business model.....
and will bring our attention to question: what is the competition?.....

3. what is the management team?-excellent

4. what is the marking team?-excellent

5. what are the pipelines?-excellent

“pipelines” meaning having new products, and / or recurring profits, is
one of the most single important business elements of ANY company,
ANY time of the business cycle, to be successful, making money, or
meaning high growth company.....



.

Thursday, July 27, 2006

 

perfect-stock: Four years cycle...( October 02 - October 06 )..

perfect-stock: Four years cycle...( October 02 - October 06 )..



Hi John,

I have no contra argument against the fact that Presidential, and Congressional elections have some role in market cycles......

General market trend for yrs is up trending, and there are many attempts to predict ups, and downs ( bear, and bull cycles..) inside this trend. There is no single tool to be able to do so...Nevertheless, there are more than a few predictions that market will go to bear cycle, bottom down, in the fall of 2006, or mid 2007....

One of them is Terry Laundry with his market T-theory. The right side of T cycle ( bull phase ) is going to end in mid 2007, and that would be start of next T bear cycle. I will try to post his chart:

Photo


While we can argue about market directions, and there is "eternal fight" between bulls, and bears, I would say that every investor MUST follow general market trend, and make trading/investment decisions accordingly..Would be foolish to swim up stream, or to ignore sector, industry, or market trend, when buying individual stocks...

My approach? I know, I can not predict market tops, and bottoms....But, I can wait for "market to tell own story", to tell me which direction is going, and adjust my action...Right now, market is in correction, or recession mode, going sideways, and no catalyst on horizon for next bull run, like tech, and internet in 1990s, or commodity boom, or consumer spending, and "housing boom" of early 2000s....I am sitting on most of my investment funds, and waiting for market to "tell me" where we are going from here....

Good luck

Dragan

Monday, July 24, 2006

 

ALS.V - initial report...

Hi everyone,


Web site: http://www.altiusminerals.com/index.php

Most US investors/traders do not buy Canadian stocks..There are a few logical reasons why not to look "up North"....

- limited, small number of Canadian companies, make limited, small number of choices, no analysts on board, small cap, small float, small average daily volumes....There are some exceptions, which are most likely to have dual listings ( US, and Canada ), like RIMM, CCJ, SU, and so on....

- usually it is very difficult to obtain complete financial, or other data for junior Canadian companies...

- not everyone find simple, and easy to trade stocks listed only on TSX ( Toronto ), or TSXV ( Vancouver )....




Still from time to time, I find some junior Canadian stocks very "exciting", worth of second look, or further research......

Altius Minerals Corporation, V.ALS, is very exciting junior company! Why?There are three major reasons:

1. uranium.......

2. refinery.....

3. management......



Uranium is in short supply, and supply/demand ratio will keep uranium "boom" for next 5 to 10 yrs minimum...Nuclear Power Stations are alternative source of "clean" energy..Uranium is the only "special metal" which is still on the 'beginning" of bull cycle...Dines Letter is drumming about uranium for last 7 yrs, and there is universal consensus of most analysts, mining, and energy experts: uranium is in short supply! Here are some comments from experts, about uranium:



http://www.altiusminerals.com/files/Adrian-Day_comments.pdf


New Crisis For U.S. Utilities: Uranium Supply Crunch Coming

SARASOTA, Fla.--(INFOLINK)--January 4, 2006--
Canadian Analyst Forecasts 'Unbelievable Highs' Ahead For Nuclear Fuel As Utilities Scramble For Reliable Uranium Supply
Research analyst Kevin Bambrough for North America's top-ranked money management firm, Sprott Asset Management, predicts a major crisis ahead for U.S. utilities hoping to obtain fuel for their nuclear reactors, especially for those proposing new reactors. "The supply is just not there," warned Bambrough in a recently published interview appearing in StockInterview.com. "For people who want to bring on new facilities and contract for it (uranium), it's very difficult to do that," Bambrough advised utilities, "You have to go to mines that are not even there yet in order to try and contract supply."

Bambrough warns of a supply deficit peaking in 2015 that might hypothetically drive uranium prices to an "unsustainable" high "north of $500/pound." The U.S. EIA projects, during Bambrough's timeframe, 67% of the nuclear fuel required to power the 103 U.S. nuclear facilities has not yet been contracted. Under this scenario, Bambrough sees an investment opportunity with many of the junior uranium companies. He explained the Sprott team has invested in juniors that "acquired properties that were once owned and were actively being worked by majors at the end of the 1970's bull market."

The Dog Days Of Summer
July 28th 2006
Market Gainer Members,

In other news in the energy sector President Bush commends the House of Representatives for the passage of landmark legislation to enable U.S. civil nuclear cooperation with India. This historic action by the House of Representatives is another important step toward building a new strategic partnership between the United States and India, the world's oldest and largest democracies. The U.S.-India civil nuclear cooperation initiative will help India generate more nuclear power to meet its enormous energy needs in a manner that does not increase greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, or increase demand on global oil and gas supplies.....






One of the "best plays" in oil/gas service sector is investing in oil/gas refineries! US has moratorium for new refineries....So, no new refineries in US. Period. The existing US refineries are mostly located in the South, and very sensitive to hurricane exposure...I find this article informative:

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/stocks/energy/10285392.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Modern refinery should be protected from work interruption, located close to the oil/gas production ( cut on transportation cost ), be able to refine crude oil, and oil from oil-sands, possible have LNG terminal, and be located in "friendly country"...Canada is logical place to build new, super-big, super-modern refinery...Altius knows that:

http://www.altiusminerals.com/files/NP-NLRefining-Feb06.pdf




One of the most important elements for any junior company is management. What do you think about management which is able to turn 600 000 "investment" to over 80 million investment, or 400 000 to over 20 million? Altius management just did that! How? By spin off ( Aurora Energy ), and royalty agreements...They even bought back own shares! This is very unusual move, most of the time juniors sell shares for additional funding, they do not buy back shares....

http://www.altiusminerals.com/files/TelegramOct26-05.pdf



OK, let see what is ALS made off, or involved to:



=Voisey Bay royalty

=Aurora Energy on the TSX

=Rambler Metals on the London AIM

=Newfoundland Refining

=other exploration ( nickel, gold, copper....)

=possibility of involvement in Lower Churchill hydro which was trumpeted yesterday by the NL premier



I have full respect for mining expert Paul van Eeden. IMHO, he is one of the best analyst for Canadian junior mining companies. Here is Paul's ALS analysis;

http://www.altiusminerals.com/files/PVE-Mar06.pdf


2006 data:

Cap: 230 M
EPS: 0.17
PE : 47
total shares: 28 M




Technical analysis:

Looking at the ALS charts, one can say: "gone to the moon"....Far from "perfect stock", there is no recent breakout from long flat basing pattern. It is very hard to find entry point. Someone on ALS Stockhouse.com message board said: "...gee, I wish, I bought this stock 5 yrs ago..!", but somebody else replied: "..gee, you will probably say the same thing in five yrs from now..." It would be very difficult to have a clear picture about ALS management quality five years ago..

Stock Graph

Stock Graph








note: ALS-X means: ALS.V


My plan would be to establish small initial position, and to accumulate ( pyramid up ) on any pull back to 10, or 30, or 50 days EMA. ALS is at 52 wks, and all time high, there is no resistance above...I am never afraid to buy at 52 wks high, but always afraid to buy at 52 wks low...


I think this is more than enough to have as initial material about ALS, and to start doing more homework. My "analysis", and opinion of ALS could be wrong, I could be biased..... Everyone MUST do own DD, own research before buying, or selling any stock. Everyone must do own trading decisions, and money management....


Good luck

Dragan


addendum: I have found an interesting post about ALS on Stockhouse.com MB:



Labrador Property

The Company together with Belmont Resources Inc. have signed an agreement to acquire 100% interest in four claim blocks (126 units approx. 4000 ha) in the CENTRAL MINERAL BELT URANIUM DISTRICT, LABRADOR.

The first claim block – location Post Hill (36 units) is located in an area surrounded by a large land package being extensively explored by Aurora Energy Inc. (Altius Mineral Corporation – "ALS" and Fronteer Development Group Inc. – "FRG"). The Altius/Fronteer land package is in one of the most prolific uranium districts in Canada. Over the past two years, Fronteer and Altius have identified widespread surface uranium mineralization associated with undrilled radiometric anomalies that are up to 4.0 square kilometres in size ("ALS" – June 20/05). Universal Uranium Ltd. ("UUL") and Silver Spruce Resources J.V. are also conducting extensive exploration programs near the Post Hill claims.

The second and third claim groups in West Central Labrador- location MacLean Lake (28 units) and Smallwood Reservoir (41 units) are situated south and adjacent to BHP Billiton and Gallery Resources Ltd. exploration camps. The main Trans Labrador Hwy. which runs from Churchill Falls to the mining centre of Shefferville, Quebec crosses through the lower portion of these claims, allowing good access to these properties.

The fourth claim block also in West Central Labrador –location Way Bay (21 units) is also strategically located south and adjacent to the large claim block (Gabbro Lake) being developed by Consolidated Abaddon Resources Inc. ("ABN") and again near additional ground held by BHP and Gallery. BHP Billiton and Gallery are completing a detailed evaluation (nickel-copper) of recently completed ground truthing of the airborne electromagnetic conductors encountered on the Gabbro Lake Project. Consolidated Abaddon is completing a comprehensive report on the exploration results regarding the potential of U308 sources on the property.

http://www.montororesources.com/projects/labradormap.pdf





Friday, July 21, 2006

 

Four years cycle...( October 02 - October 06 )..

This is an interesting chart, four years cycle...Last one is from October 2002 to October 2006...So, market is going to bottom down in October 2006, although nobody knows how far down...






Tuesday, July 18, 2006

 

perfect-stock: Welcome to "perfect stock" blog...

perfect-stock: Welcome to "perfect stock" blog...

Hi Chart Wiz,

Nice to "see" you here...This is very simple blog, and it would be nice, if possible to make better functions...But, I am too old for that. Yahoo great new MB made me to start something different...My intention is to do some theoretical stuff about "prefect stock", and post anything that I find "prefect", or close to perfect..

In the past, I have been member of informal investment groups, I made my own group, "Dr.D" club, but my major interest is in finding those "perfect stocks"..That is not very easy job during market correction, or recession..

I like to concentrate on a few stocks, hold them for some time, but also, trade around my "core" positron ( "ghosting" ). That's why "my stuff" is not very exciting for MO-MO players, or long term value investors...

I am impressed with your "reading the charts"...Would be great to get your tech analysis for stocks appearing on this board. I know you are very active, and this could be something that you are not interested.....Anyway, let me know what are your thoughts, and what are your plans "after Yahoo".....

Good luck to you

Dragan

 

perfect-stock: Welcome to "perfect stock" blog...

perfect-stock: Welcome to "perfect stock" blog...


Re:TGE.....

Petro,

TGE is excellent little "gem"....Fundamentals are very good, smart management, and future appears bright...

I believe, TGE is "undiscovered" stock. Small float, small average daily trading volume, easy to manipulate by MM....TGE need more institutional ownership, and better marketing...But, TGE moves in sync with other oil/gas stocks, oil/gas service stocks, oil/gas price, global market, and political events...

In the past TGE had some early, or delayed run around ER time. Last year hurricane season was a bump on the road. This time, I am expecting great earnings report, and better guidance for next 6-12 months...No need to go again, and again..over the qualities of this company....

Having ER, and conference is a sign of "good news" coming. They had conference last time ( Q2 ), and I do not think they would have another one so close, if guidance will be not "blow off"....

I did accumulate large position during last two weeks, and I am going to sell at 52 wks high...If daily volume picks up, like over 200-300 K daily, I will hold to see how far can go......TGE need to go through 12.10, and hold on above that level..If this does not happen, I will get out...


Good luck

Dragan

PS: you can use my "private" e-mail, if you have any other questions...

Monday, July 17, 2006

 

General comments...

Some general comments:

- this blog "thing" has two features for each post: one, if you click on "comments", that will allow you to make comments about particular post, if you wish to do so...., and second, if you click on "link to the post", that will show all previous comments made under that particular post....

-each stock "initial post" will have "update" on the top, with most current, and most important information for that stock....




After analyzing hundreds of my trades last year, I have found that breaking five of my general rules were the most common reasons for losing trades..Here are the "broken" rules:




1. NO IPOs


2. NO pennies ( under one dollar )


3. SELL, if more than 5% down, NO matter what..


4. NO impulse buying!


5. ACCUMULATE your position, but be quick, averaging up..., is OK,
averaging down...., is not OK....

Sunday, July 16, 2006

 

Hi again,


If you ever wonder how does look anesthesiologist from Canada...

Here is my photo....


Truly yours

Dragan

 

TLG, initial report....

This was posted on July 4, 2006....I did some quick trading with TLG, and TLG is now back to my "original" buy price target around 2.90....I am going to be ready for next earnings report ( ER ) in August, and hold on for 2007, if there is no major global economy meltdown, or war in the Middle East....

Breakout did not hold on ( false breakout? ), but fundamentals could suggest only testing the support level at initial breakout point....I will go in again, when price, and volumes go up...


update: July 17, 05 e-mail from President / CEO:


Dear Investor.

Thanks for your interest.

SEC and AMEX regulations require that we release our fiscal year end earnings report by end September. It is my understanding that we will announce when the release will issue ahead of time.

Regards,
Chris Coppersmith
President/CEO
Target Logistic Services

July 28, o6

Today TLG broke 200 days EMA line...This would be critical tech point, either strong sell indicator, or "buy" signal, if stock bounce back from this support line.....

It is now clear that recent breakout was a "false" breakout, not "true" breakout..This will disqualified TLG as being even close to "prefect stock"..In retrospect, breakout was triggered by unsubstantiated rumours about TLG being "takeover target". In spite of this false breakout, TLG is still fundamentally solid company, with four years almost straight line of up trending.., from 12 cents to present price....I will continue to "follow" this company, and after next ER ( August, or September), I will make my next move, keep it, or drop it...




Hi guys,

http://www.targetlogistics.com/welcome.asp


I would like you to have a look at TLG. After doing some serious research, homework, you might consider getting into this stock. I got 5 K yesterday, and I will accumulate up to 20 K in next few days, my initial research is positive...

TGL is all around ( air, sea, land ), point to point, modern, fully automatized transportation business....They will do EVERYTHING for a customer, even full customs paper work! Like: you pay, and you get your stuff shifted around the world where ever you want, fully guaranteed, and fully secured...They have offices in US, Europe, and Asia. I like this: they have 8 offices in China! This is great vision. Management is OUTSTANDING....Company moved in 2006 to much bigger new location ( California )..

Again, we are dealing with ultra small cap company, just listed on AMEX ( June 15 started to trade from OTCBB to AMEX...). No analysts, no Yahoo, or any other MB board, no "hype"...

Last five days, TLG is under heavy accumulating! Actually, last three months this stock is under accumulation, CMF, and other indicators are green....One can argue, that this buying is the result of just being listed on AMEX...I will not "buy" that..There is no rule that anyone "must" buy a stock because of "just being listed", there is no any index to balance, and TGL is a penny stock..

Let's have a closer look:

Fundamentals analysis: NEUTRAL, not too mach impressive, but this is a junior...

Total cap 73 M, total shares 18 m, float 3 M ( I like this. ..)
PE 30, ROE- + 13% ( debt to equity ratio positive at: + 22% ), ROA- + 6%, profit margin- 1.6 %.....

EPS,a revenue: excellent! for small company, last 15 consecutive Qs revenue progressively up!, and last 8 Qs EPS consecutively up...! Excellent for junior, appears this is now little money making machine...

No significant insider activity, no shorts, there is only one institutional ownership ( 0.16 % )

Technical analysis: ALL GO

Stock Graph





Since January 2002 chart is "straight" up, from 12 cents to over 4 dollars, appears now possible true breakout point, after basing for last 7 months..This breakout is at all time high, but I would say positive confirmation of this breakout is needed...We will see in next few days...

Stock Graph



Price rules: screaming buy, just gone trough upper Bollinger band, all EMAs are lined in perfect position, one above other...Last five trading days volume is "huge"..These are ALL very bullish tech signals...


News analysis: ALL GO

This could be a "silent" buying, aside of being just listed on AMEX, there is no news, ER is due end of this month, or beginning of next month...I like very much: no analysts, no MBs, no "hype"...

Lest see the answers to five questions that I usually ask about juniors:

1. business idea- very good, comprehensive, modern transport business, heavy presence in Asia ( China, Malaysia, Thailand, and Philippines, Japan....)

2. business model- a lot of competition, but quality survives, others die...

3. marketing team- appears very good, moving from OTCBB to AMEX is success, I am looking forward for conference with next earnings, and I will call their office to have a "chat"..

4. management team- excellent, I believe this is one of the best qualities of this company...I will post for you his "letter to shareholders" done by President in January 2002, you can make own judgement....:

http://www.targetlogistics.com/pressroom/display.asp?main=../Pressroom/Docs/Hype%20and%20Reality.htm&content=PR

5. pipelines- they may have "natural growth" by extending offices in different countries, and different continents, not very likely, but possible acquisitions, and / or buyout target.....


Good luck

Dragan

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